No Kan Do
T Minus 1 day until the NBA Draft, and I’m starting to get worried. There are “reports” from Espn.com’s Chad Ford that the Timberwolves are considering Enes Kanter at #2. This is very bad news. Recapping my last post introducing my suggested draft plan for the Timberwolves, you either take Williams (or Irving if available) or you trade down. Which means, David Kahn, please do not take Kanter at #2. If you like him, trade with Utah. They’d be happy to do it.
However, that all being said, forget trading down. Take Derrick Williams. And here’s why: it’s become pretty clear that Williams is going to be a good player, and is the clear-cut 2nd best player in the draft, if not the best. So the only reason for the Wolves not to take him would be that they’re happy with Beasley playing small forward.
B-Easy or D-Weezy?
But here’s what the Wolves need to ask themselves: who would you rather have, Beasley or Williams? If I had to choose, I would take Williams. Beasley’s a great talent, and he has a high ceiling, even after what has been an underwhelming two years in the league, given his gifts and his being drafted #2 overall. I would even say he has unique offensive skills that could make him one of the better offensive forwards in the league.
However, he has a few strikes against him: 1. He is a very individualistic player. Right now, he’s a one-on-one player with shaky shot selection and who doesn’t pass much. 2. He doesn’t play a lick of d. Capable? Maybe. But needs to improve. 3. And three, his intangibles are pretty glaringly suspect. I’m not saying you can’t have erratic body language, talk to yourself out loud, and generally look completely stoned (giving him the benefit of the doubt that he’s not actually stoned), and not be a good basketball player. But I am saying that if you already have those strikes against you, then you need to play hard, all the time, to have the world believe that you actually give a rat’s. And Beasley doesn’t.
Two things could help his cause: One, Rambis could be fired. It’s no secret that Rambis once upon a time didn’t play a different talented forward enough to allow him to play his game. I’m also not sure that Rambis’ do-whatever-you-want demeanor is helpful to Mr. “He smoked too much weed” Beasley. And secondly, Beasley was tearing it up last year before he hurt his ankle, and he is a much different player healthy.
That all being said, I’m not sure there’s a GM in the Association who would take Beasley over Williams right now. Williams just seems two talented, charismatic, and explosive, and Beasley just has too many question marks. So if that’s the case, you can’t pass up Williams just because you have Beasley already.
Can you find enough minutes for both? That might be another story. But I think the right play is to take Williams and figure out the rest later.
Kyrie Eleison
Same thing with Kyrie Irving. I think Rubio and Irving could play together. Irving can shoot the ball from three and can score in a number of ways. He also was in a similar situation at Duke, with he and Nolan Smith both capable of playing both guard positions. I’m not sure I want Ricky playing off the ball, but Irving could play the two and run the offense when Ricky sits. Regardless, Irving (and Williams too) would be easy to trade if it didn’t work out.
I think Kanter will be good. He’s built like a man and runs like horse, with post moves to boot- a unique combination. But he’s too much of an unknown to take him that high. And if he can’t play defense, which remains to be seen, we would regress as a defensive team, which should not be possible.
Therein lies the problem with building around Kevin Love: he doesn’t score inside and he doesn’t defend inside. So finding a center to play next to him requires finding a defensive force as well as someone who can create his own shot inside every now and again, which just might be the most rare commodity in basketball.
If you’re going to draft out of need, fine, but our top two needs are production from the 2 guard and defense from the center, and you won’t find either of those in any of the top 8 or so players in this draft. So if you’re drafting at #2, it’s gotta be Williams, Irving, or nothing!
Tiers or Tears
If I was running this draft, I would ascribe to Chad Ford’s Tier System. To summarize, the players are ranked, then grouped. The progression of each tier represents a significant drop-off in the level of player as well as the “sure-thing” factor: whether such a player has a high probability of success in the NBA.
The tier system protects teams from themselves: it keeps them from reaching too low for a player while passing up a better player. Why would teams ever “reach”? They would probably be picking based on a need or a “fit”, which can be sometimes very fluid things. For example, with the Wolves, we basically need everything, while an argument could be made that no player will perfectly fit our team, because it’s so bad!
Below is a list of players, separated by tier. I essentially took Ford’s advice on who fits in to which tier. But I went a few steps further: 1, I ordered the players within each tier according to who would be most valuable for the Timberwolves. 2, I deleted players from the list that don’t make much sense for us to draft (basically all the power forwards). 3, I identified where in the draft I would take each tier.
So here’s how it works: When it’s the Wolves’ pick turn to pick at #2 or #20 (or elsewhere if there’s a trade), they choose the most valuable player from the highest tier that still has players in it. In this case, value is based on how they help our team.
Obvious example: If Williams goes #1, you have to take Kyrie Irving, even though he doesn’t fill an obvious need, while a different player from a lower tier might. Bottom line is, Irving could turn into a star while Bismack Biyombo might never pan out. It just simply wouldn’t be wise to pass on a player of Irving’s caliber to pick based on need.
One last thing: It’s possible if we somehow ended up with the 6-8 or 13-19 picks that there’s nobody there worth picking at that level. So don’t pick there.
So without any further ado, here’s who I would draft and how they’d help us:
Who I would draft at #2:
Kyrie Irving – pg – Great all-around player. Provides offensive creativity, passing, defense, outside shooting, and is a good teammate and citizen. On the flip side, he only provided a limited sample size of stats at Duke, and is coming off an injury.
Derrick Williams – sf/pf – Charismatic personality who led a deep, unexpected run in NCAA tournament. Brings multi-faceted scoring, athleticism and finishing ability, strength, rebounding, outside shooting, energy, and toughness.
3 or below:
Enes Kanter – c – Sat out last season ineligible to play at Kentucky. He’s a strong, confident offensive force inside; works hard, plays hard, and loves the game.
4 or below:
Kemba Walker - pg – National Champion and arguably the best college player in the nation last year. Another charismatic leader, he greatly improved his shooting and was essentially unstoppable offensively. But can he play point guard and will he pay defense?
Brandon Knight –pg/sg – Athletic, aggressive guard who made multiple game-winning shots in the postseason last year. Not a great passer, average shooter, but gets it done, and plays tough defense.
9 or below:
Klay Thompson - sg – Possibly the best shooter in the draft, he’s big (6’7”) and athletic. But does he play d and can he create his own shot?
Bismack Biyambo – c – 7’7” wingspan despite his 6’9” frame. Very active, and a good rebounder and shot-blocker. Other than that, and his non-existent offensive game, he’s very much a mystery.
Alec Burks – sg – One of the best scorers in the nation last year, without much of an outside shot. Great athleticism, and an ability to get to the basket.
Chris Singleton – sf – Long, excellent defender, decent offensive player.
Jonas Valanciunas – c – Big, tough and active player, but very raw. Big European buyout means be patient.
Jan Vesely – sf – Tall (6’10”) and very athletic, runs the floor and finishes. Can handle the ball and shoot a little bit.
Kawhi Leonard – sf – Active, athletic player who rebounds and shoots the mid-range jumper
Jimmer Fredette – pg/sg – Ridiculously good shooter, finds ways to get it off, and is very well-liked and respected. Didn’t play any D in college, can he do it in the pros?
20 or below:
Marshon Brooks – sg – A scorer with very long arms and rebounds well.
Jeremy Tyler – c – tall (7’?) and athletic, he’s an American who’s played overseas and underwhelmed.
Nikola Vucevic – c – 7-footer from USC who has impressed in workouts.
Nolan Smith – sg – 4-year player at Duke with great leadership who plays defense and can score
Donatus Motiejunas – c – Lithuanian 7-footer, would go much higher without his huge buyout
Reggie Jackson - pg/sg – big point guard who plays defense
Tyler Honeycutt – sf – poor man’s Tayshaun Prince?
Josh Selby – pg/sg – highly touted high school recruit underwhelmed at Kansas.
2nd round:
E’Twan Moore – sg – 4-year started at Purdue shoots the ball well and can play point.
David Lighty – sg – big, smart player from Ohio State plays good defense and can shoot 3’s
Travis Leslie – sg – perhaps best dunker in nation, a little short (6’4”)
Malcolm Lee - pg/sg – another big point guard who can play d.
Kyle Singler – sf – one of best players in nation at Duke after four years, but not sure how his game will translate
Keith Benson - c – big, but questions about his effort
Nikola Mrotic – c – skilled big who will stay in Europe for a year or two
Late 2nd:
Morris – pg – big (6’5”) point guard from Michigan
Scotty Hopson – sg – great athlete with nice size (6’7”)
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